常常聽見中國銀行有債務問題，這是一個歷史問題，與國營企業的三角債有密切關係，這亦是大陸保持社會穩定和政府合法性的一個機制，它舒緩了社會危機．但當中國加入wto，引入銀行業的競爭，政府要處理一大堆的銀行債務問題，這亦會導致更多的國營企業清盆倒閉．
來自New Jersey Media group, Peter Zeihan的分析：china government's crisis of legitimacy．全文
And therein lies the rub - for China, its banks and the WTO as well.
By any unbiased definition - and as recently as two years ago, even in the
opinion of the government - the state banks are all moribund. Their total
portfolio of (intentionally given) bad loans amount to somewhere between one-
and two-thirds of China's gross domestic product, the highest ratio of any major
economy in human history. Should that flow of loans be interrupted, the banks
would crumble, the SOEs would crash, and China would burn in flames of economic
catastrophe and social unrest.
The end of China's five year phase-in to full WTO membership - scheduled to
arrive in December 2006 - is the very thing that could interrupt that
life-giving flow of deadly loans.
At that point, all restrictions on foreign participation in the Chinese
banking sector will fall away. And if Beijing allows this to occur as envisioned
by the WTO, foreign banks would quickly attract the bulk of China's private
savings, which now are forcibly funneled into the state banks and thence to the
SOEs.
Currently, foreign access to China's financial world is thin, restricted as
it is to local currency transactions in 18 cities. But even this limited access
has led to the formation of some 220 foreign bank offices in China and totaled
business worth 108.3 billion yuan ($13 billion) at the end of 2004. These
foreign banks already hold 12 percent of all lending business in Shanghai, a
rate of increase that Shi calls "unexpectedly [read: disturbingly] fast." Full
competition would send Chinese money to the foreign banks in droves, and once
foreign currency [read: U.S. dollar] operations are allowed, capital flight will
reach mountainous proportions.
Hence, Shi has signaled that China will abrogate its commitments to permit
banking competition, in order to assure the continued existence of the
government. A choice between China's WTO commitments and the continued survival
of the government is no choice at all.
There is certainly something to be said for preparation. Foreign bankers -
who have been singing China's praises for years - have a vested interest in
maintaining the Chinese hype, since they turn profits as money moves into or out
of China.
But for these bankers, access to China's hundreds of millions of savers is
the Holy Grail. A sudden split between Beijing and those who thus far have been
singing in the choir would signal not the beginning of the end, but the end
itself - for once the choir realizes it has been had, it is only a matter of
moments before the entire congregation of investors speeds for the door.